China’s Strategy in the Pacific

Deng Xiaoping at the Arrival Ceremony for the Vice Premier of China
Credit: Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons

This newspaper article was published in the Marshall Islands Journal on February 2nd, 2024. Below is the full article, along with the original clipping of the article from the newspaper:

In the late 1980s, rising inflation and political corruption in China led to increasing public criticism against China’s Communist Party leaders. This would eventually result in student-led demonstrations against the government in Tiananmen Square. Some students waged a hunger strike against the corruption, while others called for a new democratic government.

The then paramount leader of China, Deng Xiaoping, ordered tanks and troops to crush the protestors. The Chinese army fired into the unarmed crowds, while some protesters were crushed by tanks. In all, more than 2,000 died, ultimately destroying the movement for democracy in China.

The following year in 1990, Deng Xiaoping began to step away from leadership of China and left the next generation of Communist Party leaders a set of principles to guide them into the future. This 24-character instruction, as it came to be known, stated the following:

“Observe carefully; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.” The explanation of this policy was then given in 12 characters, and its circulation was restricted to top party leaders. It read: “Enemy troops are outside the walls. They are stronger than we. We should be mainly on the defensive.”

When I read last week’s edition of The Marshall Islands Journal, I couldn’t help but to shake my head at the news of Nauru’s shifting diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China and to think about Deng Xiaoping’s instructions: “Secure our position… bide our time.” This just about summarizes China’s strategy in the Pacific.

In 2019, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati shifted their diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China. With Nauru now following suit, this leaves only three Pacific nations who still have diplomatic relations with Taiwan: the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu.

And as of the time of writing this article, Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Kausea Natano, who favors strong ties with Taiwan, has lost his seat in elections, meaning that new lawmakers will meet within the week to vote for a prime minister. A pro-China prime minster could very well spell the end for Taiwan’s diplomatic relations with Tuvalu as well, making Taiwan’s diplomatic relations with the Marshall Islands that much more crucial.

It’s not just the Pacific islands that are important to China. It’s no secret that since 2013, China has been building and militarizing artificial islands in the South China Sea.

So if China is securing their position and biding their time with both the Pacific nations and with their man-made artificial islands, then this begs the question: “What for?” To answer this, I go back to Deng Xiaoping’s instructions: “Hide our capacities.” It is my belief that China’s desire for access to islands around the world is to harvest nuclear warheads in secret away from their mainland. This way, when China is done biding their time, they will be ready to show their strength to the “enemy troops…. outside the walls.”

Let’s not forget that it was Japan’s strength and occupation of the Pacific that emboldened them to attack Pearl Harbor in 1941 and drag the United States into the Second World War. Thus, Chinese strength in the Pacific could embolden them to do something similar, possibly with Taiwan or otherwise, in the not-so-distant future.